2011 NEC Tournament Preview.

Image taken from RMUColonials.com.

It’s that time of the year again; March Madness is upon us. The NEC tournament kicks off on Thursday with the four top seeds Long Island, Quinnipiac, Robert Morris and Central Connecticut State hosting first-round playoff games. The second round will be played on Sunday at the higher seed’s home arena, then the championship game will be next Wednesday on ESPN2. Over the past few years, this conference tournament has brought a lot of surprises and close finishes, and this year’s shouldn’t be any different.

1.) Long Island (24-5, 16-2 NEC)

The best team I’ve watched live in the NEC this year, Long Island comes into the conference tournament as the top seed by some margin. They’re a balanced team that has four players averaging more than 10 points a game. Their two big men, Julian Boyd and Jamal Olasewere, are a sophomore and junior and have been making a living on the boards, as the Blackbirds team is ranked third in the country with 42.1 rebounds a game.

Long Island doesn’t have many weaknesses. In their two conference losses (home vs. Robert Morris, @ St. Francis (PA)), they shot poorly from the field in one and went 12-26 from the charity stripe in the other. Besides that, 11 of their 16 conference wins have been from double-digits. It’ll be tough to slow them down and it’s no shock that they’re my favorite to secure the NEC’s automatic NCAA bid.

2.) Quinnipiac (21-8, 13-5 NEC)

The pre-season favorite, Quinnipiac went through a stretch of games without their best player, senior forward Justin Rutty, and that might have made them even better coming into Thursday’s game. Besides Rutty, the Bobcats are led on the offensive end by junior guard James Johnson, who goes off every single time he plays Robert Morris (28 points @ RMU in 2010, 38 points vs. RMU in 2011). He has one of the best shots in the conference and when he’s hot, watch out.

Quinnipiac comes into the tournament riding a six-game winning streak, but their only win against a tournament team in that stretch was a 68-67 decision over Central Connecticut. The lack of competition at the end of their schedule could hurt them and cause a slip-up in the opening round game, but then again their battle-tested after last year’s run in the tournament. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in the NCAA’s.

3.) Robert Morris (16-13, 12-6)

My future alma mater, Robert Morris, has been an up and down team all season who has finally hit their stride it seems. They’ll be without their best player and last year’s favorite NCAA tournament guard with a mohawk, sophomore Karon Abraham, as he was lost for the remainder of the season after the Monmouth game with an Achilles injury. However, redshirt freshman Coron Williams (ironic first name, right?) has done a good job stepping in place for Abraham, and he recently just came off a career-high 26 points in a win against Wagner.

Another team coming into the tournament with a six-game winning streak, Robert Morris also looks like they’re going to do damage in the tournament. Their guard play is the strength of the team, as redshirt sophomore Velton Jones has done a great job taking over as the leader, while Williams joins senior Gary Wallace and freshman Anthony Myers as sparkplugs. Lijah Thompson has been a surprise at forward, but he’s still too inconsistent. The X-factor for the Colonials is redshirt sophomore Russell Johnson, who at times looks like the NEC’s best player but suffers from a lot of offensive and defensive lapses. Could this be a third straight trip to the NCAA tournament for the Colonials? I really hope, but I’m not going to crown them as the favorite.

4.) Central Connecticut State (18-11, 11-7 NEC)

This team has the likely conference player of the year in redshirt junior forward Ken Horton, but they have been struggling mightily lately. To be fair, they have had to play three tournament teams in a row, but they were one of the best teams in the NEC all season and should know how to play up to tougher competition. Junior Robby Ptacek and senior Shemik Thompson can get hot at any time, and if all three players are stroking it, this team is extremely tough to beat.

I can see the Blue Devils winning the entire tournament, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if they lost in the first round. That’s how inconsistent they’ve been lately. Usually getting hot means a lot going into the tournament, but then again Robert Morris went into March riding a two-game losing streak and ended up securing the automatic bid. Flip a coin to see if you want to name them a favorite, or an early exit.

5.) St. Francis (NY) (15-14, 10-8 NEC)

As long as they have Ricky Cadell, they’ll be a tough out for whoever they match up with. Cadell has only really been shut down by Long Island, but yet they competed in both of those games. Fellow senior Akeem Bennett gives the Terriers a one-two duo that matches up with any other duo in the conference. After their first six players, they don’t get much offensive production, so that’s a definite concern heading into the tournament.

St. Francis (NY) won’t be a player to win it all, but they can definitely knock off Central Connecticut in the first round, especially after recently beating them 75-65 at home. Cadell can carry a team and keep them in a game and if junior forward Stefan Perunicic gets hot from outside, that’ll open up so much more of their offense, but it all depends which team shows up.

6.) Wagner (13-16, 9-9 NEC)

Dan Hurley has done an incredible job turning around a Wagner team picked to be 11th in the conference during pre-season. The Seahawks rely on two guards for most of their points; junior Tyler Murray and freshman Latif Rivers. Murray can hit from any part of the gym while Rivers does it all on the court. Fellow junior Chris Martin was suspended for last Saturday’s game at Robert Morris, but he’s also had his big games throughout the season.

This guard-oriented team can possibly cause an upset, but like Central Connecticut, they come in cold with four straight losses. Their big men are the weak spot of the team, so a team like Quinnipiac or Long Island should have their way with them if they were to match up later in the rounds.

7.) Mount St. Mary’s (11-20, 9-9 NEC)

This year’s Mountaineer squad is no where as dangerous as last year’s bunch, but they can definitely catch Quinnipiac in a first-round upset. They fell to the Bobcats in December after a last-second James Johnson basket, then went on to beat them at home by nine points. Senior forward Shawn Atupem has been a huge disappointment this season, but he still has the skillset to burn someone in this tournament, while junior guard Lamar Trice showed me a lot when they played the Colonials last week.

If you shut down Atupem, you’ve got Mount St. Mary’s beat. This is not a deep team at all offensively and usually rely on Atupem and Trice for most of their baskets. Freshman guard Julian Norfleet looks like he can be a pretty good player in the future, but he’s been shaky on the big stage so far with only three double-digit point games against NEC tournament teams. Their aforementioned success against Quinnipiac this season could make them a trendy pick for a first-round upset, but don’t take them farther than that.

8.) St. Francis (PA) (9-20, 7-11 NEC)

Poor Bryant; it’s unfortunate for them that they beat almost every top team in the conference and are still left out of the tournament because they’re not eligible until 2013. That gives the Red Flash a crack at pulling the first eight over one seed upset in NEC tournament history, but don’t count on it despite a win against Long Island this season. Sophomore guard Umar Shannon is a very good player and looks like another Devin Sweetney type for St. Francis, but after their starting five, they don’t have much production.

Shannon is the key in order for the Red Flash to catch Long Island sleeping. If he starts off hot, it’ll be a dog fight to the end, but he can also start off ice cold and put his team in a huge hole. Even though fellow sophomores Will Felder and Chris Johnson give them a nice nucleus for the future, this is the present and they’re going into the tournament extremely overmatched. Good luck.

PREDICTIONS

#1 Long Island over #8 St. Francis (PA)

#2 Quinnipiac over #7 Mount St. Mary’s

#3 Robert Morris over #6 Wagner

#5 St. Francis (NY) over #4 Central Connecticut

#1 Long Island over #5 St. Francis (NY)

#3 Robert Morris over #2 Quinnipiac

#1 Long Island over #3 Robert Morris

Long Island has consistently been the best team this season and I don’t see them slipping up. They’ll give whoever they match up with in the NCAA Tournament an absolute fit.