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Tuesday, March 15, 2011

2011 NCAA Tournament preview.

Photo taken from thesportsbank.net.

It's time to cuddle up with your bracket, memorize the lyrics to Luther Vandross's "One Shining Moment" and come up with a sickness to skip work on Thursday and Friday. Yes, it's time for the NCAA Tournament; my favorite sports spectacle of the year.

Last year's tournament was a very memorable one, as we saw two five seeds in the Final Four, a mid-major in Butler advance to the National Championship game, and saw multiple jaw-dropping upsets throughout every round. In the end, Duke took home their fourth championship and are a favorite to repeat this year.

The number one seeds are...
- Ohio State: Consistently at the top spot of the AP poll, the Buckeyes stormed out of the gates and won their first 24 games, before slipping up to a Wisconsin team who was very good at home. They fell once more, at Purdue, but with a deadly inside-outside combo of Naismith candidate, freshman Jared Sullinger and senior Jon Diebler, who is shooting an unreal 50% from behind the arc. The only flaw they might have is that they only go seven deep, but that hasn't been a problem all season.
- Duke: Last year's champion looks for a repeat behind senior All-ACC players Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler. Smith, like Sullinger of Ohio State, is a Naismith candidate, while Singler won the Most Outstanding Player award in last year's Final Four. Behind them, they have Seth Curry, a sophomore transfer from Liberty who has lit it up at times from three-point range this season. The weakness the Blue Devils possess is their frontcourt, which doesn't rebound as well as last year's bunch, nor is a huge offensive threat.
- Kansas: After losing Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich, the entire team took their game to the next level en route to a Big 12 championship. The Morris twins have been nothing short of outstanding, with Marcus leading on the scoring front and Markieff handling more of the rebounding duties. John Selby hasn't made the impact many thought he would, but he's still a capable guard who could explode onto the scene with a huge tournament. Their weaknesses consist their inconsistency from behind the arc and their reliance on Marcus Morris for offense. They really don't have a consistent long-range threat like the other top seeds do and if you can shut the one twin down, then you have a good chance at winning.
- Pittsburgh: Once again, Jamie Dixon has his team in the tournament after a very strong showing in conference play. The Panthers won the Big East and were consistently a top five team in the AP polls all season. They're really deep with up to 11 guys getting meaningful playing time, but the offense runs through their two guards Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker. Wanamaker does everything for the Panthers, while Gibbs is extremely efficient from three-point land. The weakness for Pittsburgh is not only their tournament history, but on strictly a playing scale, their transition defense. They're very easy to run on and if you can get the big guys in trouble, they're much more vulnerable.

The players to watch are...
- Kendall Marshall, freshman guard, North Carolina: How is a player averaging 6.1 points per game a player to watch in the NCAA Tournament? Because he's possibly the best passer in the nation already. Ever since Marshall slid into the starting lineup, he has raised the Tar Heels to an elite level, as they just lost two games to Duke in the 16 games he has started. He also can stroke it from three at times, which makes this rising frosh a dangerous threat for whoever has to play against him.
- Kemba Walker, junior guard, Connecticut: Ask Gary McGhee of Pittsburgh if his ankles are still broken. "Cardiac" Kemba has been showing up on highlight reels all season, whether it's a scooping lay-up between two defenders or a game-winning shot with the clock running down. A Naismith candidate like Smith and Sullinger, Walker has carried this team who was unranked in the pre-season to a number three seed and the Big East Tournament championship. Something tells me there's still some magic left in that jumpshot of his.
- JaJuan Johnson, senior forward, Purdue: After Robbie Hummel was lost for the season with a torn ACL, Purdue's Final Four hopes took a huge nosedive...or so they thought. Already an All-Big Ten performer, Johnson stepped his game up even more and averaged over 20 points and eight rebounds per game, claiming the conference's Player of the Year award, but also the Defensive Player of the Year award too. He fills up the stat sheet every game, which the Boilermakers will need if they want to make their once shattered dreams come true.
- Jimmer Fredette, senior guard, BYU: His name has constantly been used as a verb. There's been a song made about him. Jimmer Fredette has taken over the college basketball landscape this season and looks to go out with a big bang. Fredette has scored 30+ points 13 times, including games of 42, 43, 47 and 52. He can single-handily carry a team in any game, but with the loss of Brandon Davies to an honor code violation, BYU's Final Four dreams were crushed. Enjoy Jimmer-mania while you still can.

The potential Cinderellas are...
- Washington: The Huskies come into the tournament riding an emotional last-second overtime win in the Pac-10 Tournament championship over Arizona, after junior guard Isaiah Thomas's game-winning shot. Thomas is one of the best point guards in the nation and with the return of Venoy Overton, Washington adds another piece to their already deep team.
- Oakland: Oakland played very tough non-conference schedule, with tournament teams West Virginia, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan and Ohio State all before Christmas. Four players are averaging over 10 points a game, with senior big man Keith Benson leading the Golden Grizzlies charge with 18 and 10. They drew a tough match-up in Texas, but if they can get by the Longhorns, watch out.
- Richmond: Owning a non-conference win over Purdue, the Spiders won the underrated Atlantic-10 conference and its tournament and have won 11 of their last 12 games. Seniors Justin Harper and Kevin Anderson lead Richmond in scoring, while they rotate in and out eight players. They'll get Vanderbilt in the first round, who has seemed to always lose as a four or five seed to begin the tournament the last few years.
- Michigan State: Never, ever count a Tom Izzo-coached team in March. This isn't the same team as the past two squads, who each made the Final Four, but they're still a threat just because they are on the bracket. Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers have been great throughout their careers in East Lansing and don't want to end them on a sour note, but the team still misses Korie Lucious, who was kicked off in late January.

Don't bother taking...
- (15) Long Island over (2) North Carolina: This is not a redux of Robert Morris/Villanova from last season. North Carolina is a much better team than last year's Wildcat squad and Long Island comes into this game with zero tournament experience, while last year's Colonials fell by 15 to eventual 2008 runner-up Michigan State. The Tar Heels have probably one of the best front courts in the nation with Tyler Zeller and John Henson and they'll give Long Island's strong frontcourt trouble all game. It might be close for a little while, but eventually Carolina will pull away.
- (14) Bucknell over (3) Connecticut: I thought this could be another 2006 Syracuse situation; a team rides a hot guard throughout the Big East tournament, then falls in the opening round. However, it's not going to be. Yes, Bucknell beat Richmond and played close with Boston College, but they also lost to two NEC teams and the Patriot League isn't very strong. I just can't see Kemba letting Connecticut slip up here.
- (14) St. Peter's over (3) Purdue: Purdue is very battle-tested and knows how to win in the NCAA Tournament, while the Peacocks of St. Peter's are a surprise automatic bid. Yes, they beat some good teams like Alabama and Long Island, but they were also held to just 30 points in a loss at Robert Morris and watching that game live, I thought they were just awful.
- (12) Utah State over (5) Kansas State: Utah State's record looks very sexy, but if you look into it more, you'll see their underlying flaw; they haven't beaten anyone. They were destroyed by Georgetown and lost to BYU by six, then played dominated a weak conference. Kansas State on the other hand, seems to be hitting their stride at the right time, winning their last eight games that didn't involve Colorado. Jacob Pullen was great in last year's big dance and Curtis Kelly is a load inside.

First Round Predictions...
- (11) Marquette over (6) Xavier
- (9) Tennessee over (8) Michigan
- (11) Missouri over (6) Cincinnati
- (10) Penn State over (7) Temple
- (12) Richmond over (5) Vanderbilt
- (11) USC/VCU winner over (6) Georgetown
- (9) Old Dominion over (8) Butler
- (13) Belmont over (4) Wisconsin
- (11) Gonzaga over (6) St. John's
- (10) Michigan State over (7) UCLA

Sweet 16 Predictions...
- (1) Ohio State over (4) Kentucky
- (3) Syracuse over (2) North Carolina
- (5) Arizona over (1) Duke
- (2) San Diego State over (3) Connecticut
- (1) Kansas over (4) Louisville
- (3) Purdue over (2) Notre Dame
- (5) Kansas State over (1) Pittsburgh
- (2) Florida over (3) BYU

Elite Eight Predictions...
- (1) Ohio State over (3) Syracuse
- (2) San Diego State over (5) Arizona
- (1) Kansas over (3) Purdue
- (5) Kansas State over (2) Florida

Final Four Predictions...
- (1) Ohio State over (2) San Diego State
- (1) Kansas over (5) Kansas State

National Championship Prediction...
- (1) Kansas 73, (1) Ohio State 70

2 comments:

  1. Final Four: Ohio St., UCONN, Notre Dame, Pitt

    National Title: Ohio St. vs Notre Dame

    Champion: Ohio St.

    twinsrule3434343434

    ReplyDelete