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Saturday, October 17, 2009

Picking USC/ND at 2:37 AM.

#6 USC at #25 Notre Dame

This is the year. We have a chance. Jimmy to Golden all day. Those are thoughts of most Notre Dame fans who are desperately wanting an Irish win over the rival Trojans.

Guess what? This isn't the year.

I applaud Notre Dame for their nice run so far this season, but let's look at who they played, shall we?

They opened up with Nevada, who statistically had one of the worst pass defenses in the nation last year. From there, they took on rival Michigan in Ann Arbor. Another horrible defense, Notre Dame's experience didn't prevail against the Wolverines and they have been the only team to defeat the Irish so far. And yes, this is the same Michigan team that lost to Michigan State and Iowa recently. Speaking of the Spartans, they were one overthrow away from losing to one of the worst teams in the Big Ten. Same with Purdue, who possibly IS the worst team in the Big Ten. A controversial and eventually game costing timeout call helped the Irish out. Washington might have defeated USC, but their defense is still bad. I think this game was the most impressive on the Irish's part, because that horrible defense made an incredible goal line stand that saved the game. The Huskies could have had some better play calling, but that's besides the point.

Now rolling in are the Trojans from Los Angeles. USC has gotten better after the loss to Washington, and Joe McKnight is finally looking like "the next Reggie Bush" as he was dubbed coming out of high school. This USC defense is the 4th ranked unit in the nation, a far cry from past defenses the Irish have faced. The Michigan State Spartans possess the toughest defense Notre Dame has faced this year - the 49th ranked unit. Their 22.8 PPG is a joke compared to the Trojans defense, who only allow 8.6 PPG and 238.6 YPG.

Now I'm going to be honest here: if Michael Floyd would play, I would give Notre Dame a chance. Floyd, in my opinion, is probably a top five receiver in the nation...when healthy. Unfortunately for the Irish and their fans, they will have to wait till possibly the Navy game for him to come back. That leaves Golden Tate as Jimmy Clausen's number one target, who is a mighty fine receiver himself. He's no Floyd, but he's really explosive and can make something out of nothing. However, he hasn't really faced a legit corner this season.

Matt Barkley will have to step up against an Irish defense who is ranked in the bottom half of yards allowed per game. If he can make a few big passes, it will really take the pressure of the running game. There are reports that Ronald Johnson will play in the showdown, a huge boost for the freshman quarterback. Johnson gives Barkley a deep threat - something that has killed the Notre Dame defense all year.

I expect the crowd to be rocking; I mean it's the USC game for crying out loud. But Pete Carroll will have his troops ready. Unless they haven't mowed the grass (2005 game reference), I expect the Trojans to come up victorious...by a huge margin. This Irish team is a lot better than last year's, that's a fact. However, they aren't good enough to beat a USC team yet, even one that I don't think will win the Pac-10. Weather might or might not be a factor, we will see.

USC 44, Notre Dame 20

Other Predictions
#2 Alabama 31, #22 South Carolina 17
#3 Texas 41, Oklahoma 30
#4 Virginia Tech 27, #19 Georgia Tech 17
#14 Penn State 24, Minnesota 10

Monday, October 5, 2009

No secondary, no quarterback, no coaching, and most importantly, no heart.

"No secondary, no quarterback, no coaching, and most importantly, no heart. This team is absolutely awful and major changes are needed." This was my Facebook status after Tennessee's implosion against division rival Jacksonville. I thought this team would put it all together this game. I thought David Garrard couldn't possibly tear us up through the air. Well I thought wrong.

No secondary. Last year we were ranked 9th in the league in passing yards allowed. This year we have fallen to 29th. What's the problem? I've already mentioned Nick Harper in my last post, but it's time to add another player into the ring. I loved the pick of third-rounder Ryan Mouton out of Hawaii. He had a similar build to Cortland Finnegan and I figured they found the same player. Well today, Mike Sims-Walker made him look worse than Harper, which is really saying something. He didn't have 100 yards receiving - a first this year - but he continuously got open and made two fine touchdown catches. Add on his fumbling problems on kickoffs and punts, and we might be looking at someone who could be cut at the end of the year. He might possibly be up there with 2007 second-rounder Chris Henry, who was drafted based on his combine workout and not his production on the field. Henry was awful and couldn't get going for the Titans and finally he was deservingly cut last week.

No quarterback. The last point and this point will provide a lead into the next point. I hate to say it but...it might be time to put in Vince. With the additions of Kenny Britt and Nate Washington to pair up with holdover Justin Gage, Kerry Collins has better receivers than last year's group of Brandon Jones and Justin McCareins. There shouldn't be excuse to have a worse year, but that is what's happening. He's thrown six picks to his five touchdowns and the touchdown he threw today was by the time the game was decided. The receivers have dropped some passes, but Collins has thrown bad passes at the worst times. At 0-4, the push for the playoffs is just about over, and putting in Vince might spark some life into this team. Either that or they'll go 0-16 with him - hopefully it's not the latter. However, I don't see him going in unless Kerry gets injured - mainly cause of the way Vince quit on his team against the Jaguars last year in the opener.

No coaching. We know my thoughts about new defensive coordinator Chuck Cecil and how I wish Jim Schwartz was still calling plays. However, I'm going to bash Mike Heimerdinger here. First of all, why the hell is Kerry Collins throwing the ball 30+ times a game. Is that a new approach to win ball games? 35 attempts in week one, 33 in week two, 37 in week three, and 48 in week four - I'm surprised Kerry's arm hasn't fallen off after all those throws. I don't care if we're winning or losing at the time; you don't abandon what you're known for. These throws are eating at Chris Johnson's carries and someone else's. You might love LenDale White, most of you hate him, but this stat I'm about to provide you shows his importance to the team. Last year when White got 10 or more carries, the Titans record was 11-0. Whenever he got nine carries or less, the Titans record was 2-4 (including playoffs). What does that bring up? Eight carries in week one, six carries in week two, seven carries in week three and two carries last week = an 0-4 record. He's not the most explosive back by any means, but the more carries he gets, the more he wears down defenses and it opens up holes in the secondary for Kerry to exploit.

No heart. The first three weeks weren't bad for the most part - the team seems fired up and wanting to win. I did not see that at all against the Jaguars. As soon as the Jags jumped out to an early 10-0 lead, mostly everyone dropped their heads and gave up. I honestly saw four guys - Chris Johnson, Kenny Britt, Keith Bulluck, and newly acquired Mark Jones - that were giving it all out there and never quit.

Defensive captain Keith Bulluck needs to light a fire under his corps at practice this week. Chris Johnson should become a leader and get in his teammate's faces at practice. Both of them need to tell the team to cut the bullshit and just play football. Keith needs to remind them of 2006. We started off 0-5, but rallied the troops and ended up finishing 8-8; salvaging our season. Divisional rival Indianapolis comes in Sunday night and this team should want nothing more than to knock them off.

It's going to take heart to do it.

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Titans thoughts and predictions.

Tennessee Titans (0-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)

I'm really hoping this is just a dream. The AFC's best regular season team last year, the Tennessee Titans, are now sitting at the bottom of the AFC South with an 0-3 record. Yes, they have same number of losses as last year's squad already.

Unfortunately, this is not a dream and that's the beauty of the NFL - a team can fall so fast within a year's span and vice versa. I mean, look at some of the surprising teams this year. The Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers are sitting at 1-2 and third in their division. Credit the fact that All-Everything safety Troy Polamalu is out, but still it is surprising nonetheless. AFC East champion Miami are with the Titans in the ranks of the winless. With the announcement that Chad Pennington is out for the year, it looks like with one more loss, they will be in rebuild mode for the rest of the year. Jake Delhomme has carried his horrific play from the playoffs into the regular season, as his countless mistakes have made the Panthers another one of the winless squads.

However, despite the Titans' 0-3 record, you can look deeper into the games and see some positives. First of all, the offense is better than last year's. Kerry Collins makes his one to two mistakes every game, but what middle of the pack quarterback doesn't? The explosive Chris Johnson is second in the league in rushing yards and a slimmed down LenDale White looked pretty good in limited carries against the Jets. The receiver corps is leaps and bounds better than last year, when Justin McCareins had to be in during meaningful snaps. The acquistion from Pittsburgh, Nate Washington, looked like a nice signing over the last two games; despite a few drops last week. Justin Gage is looking more and more like a number one target, minus a few drops from him as well. And the rookie from Rutgers, Kenny Britt, looks like he'll be an absolute stud. The former Scarlet Knight has brought down multiple clutch catches and should expand his role with offense as the season goes on.

The run defense has been stout as well. Right now they are allowing 60.7 yards per game, good enough for 2nd in the league. They held Willie Parker, Steve Slaton and Leon Washington to 19, 34, and 46 yards respectively. However, there is a reason that the Titans are 0-3.
Santonio Holmes, Andre Johnson, Jerricho Cotchery...what do these names have in common? They are all their respective team's number one receiver and they all have had a 100+ yard receiving day against the Tennessee secondary. Holmes duplicated his Super Bowl stats in week one, with nine catches, 131 yards and a score. Andre Johnson proved why he might be the best receiver in the league with a 10 catch and two touchdown performance. And despite the rain, Mark Sanchez found Jerricho Cotchery with most of his throws, evidenced by the eight catches for 108 yards and a trip to paydirt. There's one more thing that at least Johnson and Cotchery had in common.

Nick Harper. The new defensive coordinator Chuck Cecil has played Harper on both Johnson and Cotchery for at least 75% of the game and that very controversial plan has backfired in a big way. Harper is too slow to be a strictly man corner and he's better fitted in a cover two scheme. Add to the fact that he's getting up there in years and might have two or three tops left in his career, that should give enough reason to put him on the opponent's second receiver.

And then there's the special teams play, which has hurt and cost us in all three of our games this year. Opening night at Pittsburgh - Rob Bironas misses a field goal and has another one blocked. The Steelers win the game in overtime by three. If Bironas makes just one of those kicks, Tennessee could have easily been starting 1-0. Ryan Mouton fumbles a punt and Houston proceeds to score off of it. Another three point loss that could have easily been a win. Then last week against the Jets, the rookie out of Hawaii muffs up again. He fumbles a kick and a punt, and New York captializes on both of them for touchdowns. That's 14 points there and with the final being 24-17, taking away those turnovers could have gave Tennessee the win.

I think Tennessee gets back on track here. David Garrard is the worst quarterback we've faced all year and his receivers aren't exactly the greatest either. Cortland Finnegan is doubtful and probably won't play, so rookies Ryan Mouton and Jason McCourty will start. This worries me a little, but I still believe. This team is far too talented to be 0-4.

Tennessee Titans 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 21

Saturday, October 3, 2009

Penn State/Illinois prediction.

#15 Penn State at Illinois

Does this sound familiar? Think back to two years ago. The Penn State Nittany Lions were coming off a three game winning streak to start the year against three mediocre teams, and were getting a lot of buzz in the national landscape. On the other side, a Michigan Wolverines squad was finally in the win column after opening off the season with a shocking loss against FCS champion Appalachian State. Everyone picked Penn State to win the game against Michigan. And then to prove everyone wrong, Michigan came out ready to play and beat the Nittany Lions, 14-9.

The next week, Penn State traveled to Champaign to face the Illinois Fighting Illini. Feeling somewhat of a hangover after the loss to Michigan, they came out and struggled against the Illini squad and ended up dropping their second Big Ten game in a row. That first conference loss set the mood for the rest of the year, and ended up taking a possible Rose Bowl season to a disappointing Alamo Bowl berth.

So let's compare here. Penn State blows out three mediocre teams to start the season. They start receiving national championship game buzz before their Big Ten opener against Iowa. Iowa didn't quite pull a Michigan, as they barely beat the FCS squad they opened up with; Northern Iowa. Unlike that Wolverines squad, they continued to win and came into the matchup against the Nittany Lions, 3-0.

Everyone picked Penn State to win. Do I have to tell you what happened? Penn State fell flat on their faces and lost to the Hawkeyes. Once was one of the nation's sweethearts before the game, turned into one of the goats after the loss. And guess where they play at today? Champaign.
However, unlike the Illinois squad of 2007, this one is awful. They once were considered a contender in the Big Ten, but have played down to the amount of talent they possess. If Penn State loses here, I believe it will be 2007 all over again where they had the talent to win the conference but ended up playing in a bowl like the Alamo.

I feel Penn State will come out slow, but eventually get it turned around. This team is still far too talented to lose two conference games in a row, especially to one of the worst teams in the Big Ten. Although they didn't show it against Iowa - who has Penn State's number - they still have one of the best teams in the Big Ten and in fact might be 1b with Ohio State. That Nittany Lions/Buckeyes matchup later in the year will decide the Big Ten title.

Daryl Clark will get much better protection from his line (unlike last week) and have a great game against that Illini secondary. This will get them back on track and they'll win out going into their showdown against the surprising Michigan Wolverines in a few week.

Penn State 27, Illinois 10