Follow WoyRMU15 on Twitter

Sunday, September 5, 2010

AFC South preview.


Save the years Tennessee landed on top (2002, 2008), Indianapolis has reigned the AFC South with an iron fist. They've been just a tad spoiled though with the best quarterback in the league, Peyton Manning, taking snaps since the current divisional alignment took place. Whereas, the Jaguars, Texans and Titans have all been through multiple quarterbacks and down periods through that time.

This season is shaping up to be no different, as the Colts return as heavy favorites. And how can you not bet against them? They were 14-0 before deciding to rest their starters in the final two games against New York and Buffalo, and they've only gotten better with a solid draft class plus players returning from injury. However, the other three teams have squads that can win a Wild Card spot, which shows the depth of this division; it's no cake walk in the AFC South.

4.) Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected Record: 6-10
Post-Season results: N/A
Jacksonville is an interesting team to predict. They have enough talent to get over .500, but coaching them is still the infamous Jack Del Rio. David Garrard is your typical journeyman quarterback - in relation to his skill-set, not because of his travels in the league since he's been a Jaguar for life - who can have a big season one year and flop the next.

They do have some very good pieces that are the features of their offense. Maurice Jones-Drew is a top five runningback in the league and would get more attention in the division if it wasn't for that speedster in Nashville, while Mike Sims-Walker quietly had a breakout season last year. However, starting at quarterback once again is David Garrard, who's been awfully inconsistent since taking over for Byron Leftwich years ago. With draft analysts guaranteeing a Tim Tebow selection during this year's draft, and despite Jacksonville not taking the former Florida standout, you got to think Garrard's job is in jeopardy if he doesn't perform.

The defense improves with the addition of Aaron Kampman, who was a great pass rusher in Green Bay just a few years ago. He is coming off a torn ACL though, so who knows if he'll be a big factor this season for Jacksonville. Joining him on the line are a bunch of no-names, after the Jags released former Pro Bowl tackle John Henderson in the off-season. They better hope first-round reach Tyson Alualu can help make up for his absence.

Former Raiders linebacker Kirk Morrison lands in Jacksonville after being acquired for a fourth-round pick. He joins Daryl Smith to make up a solid linebacker corps, but the third spot is still up for grabs between Justin Durant and Russell Allen. As for the secondary, the cornerback slots are set with Rashean Mathis and Derek Cox. The safeties are the weak spot in the defensive backfield though, as Reggie "I don't want to tackle" Nelson and Gerald Alexander start back there. Alexander has shown flashes of potential, but he's very injury prone.

Josh Scobee is among the league's best kickers, while Adam Podlesh is okay at booting the ball on fourth down. Mike Thomas controls the returning game for Jacksonville.

The Jaguars surprised a bunch of people - me especially - after they were still in the playoff hunt with just a few weeks to go. They are a decent team when everything's clicking, showing that in a sweep of Houston and a blowout of Tennessee, but when they're off, they're horrible. Expect more of the same this season, but they won't be in contention for a playoff spot near the end like last year.

3.) Houston Texans
Projected Record: 8-8
Post-Season Results: N/A
"Houston's a darkhorse in the AFC." - random NFL analysts from 2007-10.

Do you remember hearing this over the last few years? Has it gotten annoying yet? Well, for me it has. Sure Houston has a talented team, and they've taken a small step forward by finishing 9-7 last season - their first winning season in history - but I haven't seen anything from them that leaves me to believe they'll take the next step by making the playoffs.

Their passing offense is one of the most explosive in the league. Matt Schaub is a top fantasy football quarterback when healthy and he gets to throw to the NFL's top receiver in Andre Johnson. Their receiving corps are one of the most underrated groups in the league, but they'll need them to produce a lot because of their mediocre rushing attack. Rookie Ben Tate was looked upon to improve that phase of their offense, but he's out for the season. That means Arian Foster and Steve Slaton will carry the load for Houston; not exactly a frightening duo.

They've also got some nice pieces on defense. Mario Williams has become the right choice as first selection in the 2006 NFL Draft. Brian "I train too hard" Cushing and DeMeco Ryans are two good, young linebackers, but besides those players, they're kind of shaky up front. Amobi Okoye hasn't lived up to his potential yet and the rest of the line is a bunch of no-names. Cushing and Ryans make up a great duo as heavy hitters, but the third guy is a major downgrade compared to those two.

The secondary is very shaky, which is a major problem if you face Peyton Manning twice a year. They lost their best player in the defensive backfield, Dunta Robinson, to Atlanta in free agency. Kareem Jackson was Houston's first-round pick and he should be a starter beside Glover Quin or Brice McCain, who both received a good bit of playing time as rookies. Bernard Pollard assumes Robinson's role as the head of the secondary, but the guy beside him, Eugene Wilson, is not exactly scary.

Kris Brown and Neil Rackers will compete for the starting kicking job, with Rackers as the predicted winner. Rackers had an awesome regular season for the Cardinals last season, but missed a big field goal that would have sealed the playoff game against Green Bay, so that should worry Texans fans just a bit. Matt Turk returns at punter again, while Jacoby Jones will have to fight off Trindon Holliday at returner.

This team has the potential to make the playoffs, but as long as Gary Kubiak is the coach, I'll never believe in them. They have some great pieces to build around, while other phases of their team are downright mediocre (running game, secondary). I just can't see them going better than 8-8 once again.

2.) Tennessee Titans
Projected Record: 10-6
Post-season result: lose in Wild Card Round
Tennessee has thrived on being underexposed. Coming off of a 10-6 year in 2007, they weren't talked about too much going into 2008. Instead of quietly going on with their season, they went 13-3 to claim the top seed in the AFC playoffs, where they were just a few controversial plays away from advancing to the AFC championship. The opposite happened last season, as many thought they were a Super Bowl caliber team, but they stumbled to an 0-6 start and had critics laughing.

With the hype Indianapolis and Houston is getting, Tennessee falls into the sleeper role they love. Vince Young returns for another year as the starting quarterback, coming in with a lot of momentum after taking over for Kerry Collins and leading the Titans on a 8-2 finish after their horrendous start. If you've watched him during last season and the pre-season this year, you can't help but be impressed of his progression passing the ball. He looks like an actual quarterback out there now and not a Michael Vick wannabe.

2006 rushing yards is one hell of an accomplishment, but Chris Johnson believes he'll have a better season this year, predicting 2500 rushing yards. He won't get near those numbers, but the best runningback in the game will make life easier for Young. I think he'll get less carries as last year, leaving former Michigan State standout Javon Ringer as the likely replacement to pick up those attempts.

The receiving corps is your typical no name group, but Jeff Fisher has said this might be the most talented bunch he's had here in a while. Justin Gage, Nate Washington and Kenny Britt will all catch the majority of the balls, but don't be surprised if third-round pick Damian Williams and Lavelle Hawkins make impacts as well. Bo Scaife, Craig Stevens and Jared Cook give Tennessee a solid group of tight ends, while their line-mates are some of the best in the league.

The defense, which is usually a given strength for the Titans, is the weakness of this team. They had their moments last season, but they also gave up 40+ points to San Diego and New England; the Patriots playing the role of bully in a 59-0 drubbing. With Keith Bulluck in New York, All-Pro corner Cortland Finnegan takes over the role of leader. Starting on the opposite of him will be either Jason McCourty or fourth-round pick Alterraun Verner, who has impressed many in both training camp and pre-season games.

The defensive line is again full of no-names, but their position coach Jim Washburn loves this group of players. Jason Jones - who had a four sack game against Pittsburgh in 2008 as a rookie - could be a potential Pro Bowler if he stays healthy, while their first-round pick was spent on All-American end Derrick Morgan. Along with Morgan, holdovers Jacob Ford, William Hayes and Dave Ball will have another pass rusher joining them in journey-man Jason Babin, who has impressed in training camp.

Without Bulluck, look for Stephen Tulloch to make a larger impact on the defense. The undersized middle linebacker has been a constant bright spot for the Titans for the past few seasons now, but he could make his name known now since he's out of Bulluck's shadow. Beside him will be new acquisition Will Witherspoon and Gerald McRath; who's suspended for first four games of the season. Rookie Rennie Curran will see a lot of playing time spelling all three starters.

One of the league's best kickers returns for Tennessee in Rob Bironas. Brett Kern was a solid mid-season pick-up last year at punter; he'll take over the starters role for good now with Craig Hentrich retired. The returner job is still up for grabs, but anyone is better than the pathetic effort they put out there last season.

If Vince Young can perform like he did last season, the Titans offense will be very explosive. History shows that the second year of a new defensive coordinator is much better, which is a good sign for Chuck Cecil's squad. The first eight weeks of the season provide some tough games, but if they can get out of that stretch at least 5-3, the Titans will be playoff bound again, setting themselves up for a possible Super Bowl run in 2011.

1.) Indianapolis Colts
Projected record: 13-3
Post-season result: win Super Bowl
As long as Peyton Manning is under center, the Colts will always be a double-digit win and playoff team; usually earning that playoff berth as the AFC South champion. Like I said before, they've only been dethroned twice since the new divisional alignment took place and that doesn't seem to change this season.

One of the given positives of the offense is Manning, but let's not forget the deep receiving corps he gets to throw to. All-Pro Reggie Wayne has taken the leader's role over for Marvin Harrison a few years ago, but he had two breakout pass-catchers in Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon join him. Add one of the top tight ends in the league in Dallas Clark and Anthony Gonzalez, returning from injury, and you have one of the best groups in the league.

The running game is solid when it's used. Joseph Addai doesn't get the credit he deserves and always performs well when given the chance in big games. Donald Brown is a talented back-up who have some fans wanting him to start, but his pass protection skills are mediocre. Former Michigan Wolverine, Mike Hart, is a fan favorite.

The offensive line is the one true weak spot on this Colts offense, which only adds to Manning's legend. They added Adam Terry, Andy Alleman and rookie Jacques McClendon to help shore that up, but it'll be interesting to see if they do just that.

Once the weak spot of the team, the Colts defense is now a strength. The defensive line is headlined by Pro Bowl duo Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, with Dan Muir, Antonio Johnson and Eric Foster playing inside. Look for first-round rookie Jerry Hughes to make an impact on passing downs. The linebackers are solid as well, led by defensive captain Gary Brackett. Clint Session is a highlight reel hitter, but the third spot is held by Philip Wheeler; the obvious weak spot of the group.

The defensive backfield has a big name back in it; but for how long? Bob Sanders, former NFL Defensive Player of the Year, is healthy once again and looks to get back to top form, but Melvin Bullitt is always ready if Sanders goes down again. Antoine Bethea is a Pro Bowler at the other safety spot, while Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey team up with Kelvin Hayden to give the Colts a nice trio of corners.

Adam Vinatieri also returns from injury and hopes to return to his Super Bowl hero play, while Pat McAfee impressed last year at punter and kickoff specialist. The returning game was a mess last season however, but rookies Ray Fisher and Brandon James should clear that up.

They made the Super Bowl last year after suffering numerous injuries, so after getting healthy and upgrading some key parts of their roster, there shouldn't be a question of who the AFC favorite is. If Manning and their most important starters can stay healthy, I don't see anyone beating them in the playoffs en route to the Super Bowl.

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
AFC East: New England Patriots
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens
AFC South: Indianapolis Colts
AFC West: San Diego Chargers
Wild Card: New York Jets
Wild Card: Tennessee Titans

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys
NFC North: Green Bay Packers
NFC South: New Orleans Saints
NFC West: San Francisco 49ers
Wild Card: Minnesota Vikings
Wild Card: New York Giants
Wild Card Playoffs
Patriots over Titans
Jets over Chargers
Packers over Giants
Vikings over 49ers

Divisional Playoffs
Colts over Jets
Ravens over Patriots
Vikings over Cowboys
Packers over Saints
Conference Championships
Colts over Ravens
Vikings over Packers
Super Bowl XLIV
Colts over Vikings

1 comment:

  1. your homerism saddens me, there's no way in hell the titans are better than the texans

    ReplyDelete